This is a repeat of the earlier graph showing flood level against Return Period. It is useful to re-examine the detail of the two lines on this graph. By taking a flood level of, say 3.45m, the Return period in 2000 is ~350 years and for the 2100 line it is ~10 years. In other words, a flooding event in terms of land flooded, that in 2000 would only be estimated to occur once in ~ 300 years, will occur approximately once every 10 years in 2100. In other words; a flooding event which most people would not expect to see in their lifetime will, by 2100, be occurring typically once every 10 years.

This demonstrates the magnitude of the change in flood risks as a consequence of a change in the climate leading to an increase in the sea level. This emphasises the need to continually monitor the extent of climate changes and model its possible effects. This allows us to make the necessary changes, for example, in flood defences, building planning and land use and in lifestyle, that can minimise or reduce the risk to an acceptable level.

Acknowledgement

In creating this example, The Crown estate has drawn on the work of Haskoning UK Ltd and Professor David Pugh OBE. The data sets used include some provided by the Environment Agency and permission to use these is gratefully acknowledged.

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