In January 2008, the press were full of reports of the impact of Jérôme Kerviel’s impact on world stock markets. This trader cost Société Générale €4.9 billion by hiding trading positions he should never have taken. The impact of these trades being unwound is widely believed to have been a significant factor in the decline of market values around the world. Press reports at the time such as this one in the Times were full of phrases like global crisis, panic, nervous traders fears’. This story unfolded as it was becoming clear that the impact of the overinvestment in poor quality ‘sub-prime’ housing loans in the USA was tuning into a major threat to economic stability around the world. The effect has been that institutions, which were once blithely lending money to all and sundry almost regardless of ability to repay, have become fearful of lending even to each other. As this story has unfolded there has, again, been an important subtext of emotion in markets (for example Buy Panic: Gene Marcial on How Market Meltdowns Can Be Your Ally).

Photo: Helico

Emotion in financial markets is not all about fear and panic. We know for example that, on average, prices on the New York Stock Exchange are higher on sunny days than on cloudy days. Sunny weather tends to make us feel more optimistic and it turns out that professional traders are no exception.

Meanwhile recent work by Cambridge University neurologists John Coates and Joe Herbert has shown a significant link between traders behaviour and the levels of hormones, such as testosterone, which have important links to emotion.

This is all in complete contrast to financial economists accounts of market behaviour which see investor decisions as driven by rational analysis, and prices as perfectly reflecting rational analysis of all available information.

So should we simply conclude that traders need to get a better grip on their emotions, calm down and start making rational decisions on the basis of considered analysis? Certainly my own research (with colleagues Nigel Nicholson, Emma Soane and Paul Willman) shows that learning to regulate their emotions is an important part of traders learning as they gain experience. As one trader told us:-

“I would cite myself as a great example of someone who started trading when I was 18 and got terribly emotional about everything, every loss; and I’d lie awake at night and think everything through and try and replay the tape - I wish it happened a different way … Over time you realize that nothing matters and you not only realize that nothing matters in here, it doesn’t matter outside here either. It took me a long time to get that.” 

However our research, which involved detailed interviews with 118 traders and their managers, also seemed to suggest that learning effective emotion regulation is not simply learning to set feelings aside. In the fast paced world of trading, rapid decision-making is at a premium; and the emotional cues and hunches that come from long experience can be an important aid. Rather than emotionless machines, high performing traders were often aware of their emotions. They used them as important sources of information; but were not at their mercy. Our findings are supported by a recent study by Myeong Seo and Lisa Barrett (220K PDF) who found that stock investors who were better able to identify and distinguish among their current feelings outperformed other investors.

As we learn more about the ways in which human cognition and emotion are inseparably entangled it is becoming clear that emotional competence is not just important to our relationships, it is a vital element of success in the world of high finance.

If you are interested in learning more about decision-making, you can find a free course designed by this author on Openlearn: Making decisions. You can also find a free course which gives a financial economics perspective on markets: The financial markets context.

About the author

Mark Fenton-O'Creevy is Professor of Organisational Behaviour at the OU Business School. His research includes investigations into the performance of traders in financial markets, and the problems that occur when management practices are transferred from one country to another.

He is also a National Teaching Fellow, and Principal of the Centre for Practice-Based Professional Learning.

A study by the European Commission (0.6MB PDF) in 2002 identified 4 key drivers of entrepreneurship and small firm development in Europe. These were:

• Continuous technological developments
• Shorter product life-cycles
• Increasingly demanding consumers
• Global competition

Research in 2006 by the Institute of Chartered Accountants of England and Wales (ICAEW) (based on a survey of 1,000 companies) revealed that 60% of companies with 49 or fewer staff bought goods or services from abroad or had customers or operations there.

“Increasingly, small businesses do not start off trading locally as they did in the past,” said Clive Lewis, ICAEW head of enterprise. “If you have a website you can think globally from the beginning”.

[from Small companies look beyond local to go global in the Financial Times, Thursday October 12, 2006, page 4]

The drivers of this trend according to the ICAEW have been globalisation together with the spiralling cost associated with red tape. Increased staffing costs were also becoming a problem for UK SMEs and was a primary reason for the outsourcing of back office jobs to the low cost economies in Eastern Europe and Asia . This is a trend that is likely to double over the next five years.

It is not just in the area of back office support services that SMEs (Small and medium enterprises) and small business start-ups are seeking overseas resources. If a business’ core product or service is information-based then virtual structures, using the Internet as a conduit, may have spawned new form of mini-multinational. For example, GNI is a biotechnology start-up that carries out research in Cambridge UK, data analysis in Japan, clinical trials in China and sells its outputs in the USA to large pharmaceutical companies.

“We take the best of what is available in each country and put them together,” says Mr Savoie GNI’s founder

[from March of the mini-multinational in the Financial Times onThursday May 4, 2006, page 12]

Video conferencing is used to link up personnel and the organisation is able to exploit national differences, cost and expertise to operate as a mini-multinational. Carol Cherkis, Vice President of GNI says that GNI is not a virtual company but a real company “It’s just that we are not all in the same place” [from March of the mini-multinational in the Financial Times on Thursday May 4, 2006, page 12].

Another example of a virtual mini-multinational is Lingo 24 which is a translation company  employing 40 staff in China, New Zealand and Romania with a turnover of £1.5 million and profits of £120,00 (as in 2004). The company’s headquarters are a two bedroom house in Deptford where clients ranging from BP, Honda, Ikea Orange and Travelex are served. Instead of having to physically travel to expensive offices employees can simply log on to a Lingo 24’s central database to obtain all the necessary information relating to translation projects. Homeworking and using international staff reduces overhead costs by 30% and permits a 24/7 service to be offered. Lingo 24 communicate on a daily basis using Skype and e-mail whilst the company intranet is used to monitor quality and provide an editorial oversight.

Richard Portes, an expert on globalisation at London Business School, said: “Small businesses are now operating on a global scale. They could not have done [this] 15 years ago.” Professor Portes added: “The advantage small businesses have is that they are not burdened with long lines of command, where important pieces of information come from operations in one country [back to the centre] then travel up and down chains of command”.

[from Small companies look beyond local to go global in the Financial Times, Thursday October 12, 2006, page 4]

So has the Internet spawned a new form of organisational structure and a new source of competitive advantage for agile and responsive entrepreneurial companies? Are the “big boys” shaking in their boots and would it be premature to start throwing out the textbooks on downsizing, delayering and business process re-engineering…….. or is this just a passing fad?

About the author

Nigel Walton is an associate lecturer for the Open University and the University of Worcester, specialising in strategy, entrepreneurship and international marketing. He previously worked as a management consultant, primarily advising medium-sized companies with growth problems.